B3. Direct vs. Indirect—second- and third-order consequences

Direct vs. Indirect—second- and third-order consequences

Decisions we take are not made in a vacuum. The effects are impacted by an infinite number of aspects, in turn creating ripple effects of change. Give a child a computer, and they may use it to gain incredible knowledge, build lasting relationships, or get stuck in online casinos, luring people into addiction. Depending on the child’s path, it will consequently make different choices, with different impacts on people around them, creating ripple effects of its own.

Intellectually this can be overwhelming, but intuitively we often have a good sense of what’s usually taking us in the right direction. Usually is the keyword as probability and expected value helps us understand the likely outcome of our actions. In other words, if we learn to acknowledge and predict the long-term indirect effect of our choices, we will make better ones.

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Trying hard to support children’s education in developing countries, not-for-profit organizations tried adding every resource they could think of as lacking. More teachers, books, and classes were tested over large areas, but none seemed to move the needle. Later, people looked further from the school system and realized many children suffered from parasites, making them sick. Luckily the treatment costs close to nothing and can be supported today online . Curing kids at a steady pace turned out to heavily impact academic results that now soared. The first effect of an intestinal parasite is feeling sick. The second-order effect is not being motivated or even able to study, while the third-order effects naturally affect learning and grades.

We only need to think of when we had a high fever to realize that more books or personnel would not increase our performance at either school or work. It seems very intuitive when looking back. Still, several large organizations with highly educated people missed the chain of events. Looking forward, what societal problem do we have today that could be solved by looking at indirect consequences?

Depending on where we stand, the painful and valuable aspect of second-order consequences is that each new order of change builds on the last, making the chain of events difficult to break. If we’re born in a rich or poor family, we are likely to remain within our socioeconomic group as many supporting factors keep us there. If we intentionally create favorable structures in society that help us individuals grow through second-order consequences, we’re likely to ourselves pass on positive third-order effects to others.

Having the support of society is priceless, but regardless of background, steering our life in the direction we wish is inherently challenging. Most can relate to the feeling of mesmerizing insights, showing us the enlightened path to follow when dealing with our thoughts, friends, and relations, only to minutes later being forgotten, overshadowed by worldly distractions. Insight is never enough. The moment disappears, and so does the idea of the new us acting in line with a higher realization. We need guard rails to support us over time to slowly but surely move towards our preferred change. We need indirect change.

The direct change is quick, measurable, and concrete. It works wonders when being executive enough to act in the now. But it does require action as insight in itself will rarely last. The sense of really wanting a more adventurous life quickly fades. Unless we down a glass of wine and instantly buy a ticket to the other side of the world, that is. Now we put in place indirect consequences that have a better chance of creating lasting change. Planning, preparing, and leaving work will all play into the new version of yourself. So will the people we will meet and the stories we will share. Even long after the trip, we will feel a notably lower barrier to more adventures because of the spontaneity performed and positive reinforcements of great memories.

Some effects will be more obvious than others. Starting a new job will teach us new skills, this is clear. Spending forty hours in a new setting will also likely drastically change our social life, exercise routines, what we keep top of mind, and who we date. This is a more complex pattern, difficult to figure out, but if we notice what indirect effects or choices have had in the past, we begin to distinguish patterns to use for future changes depending on where we would like them to take us.

The more we get hold of these patterns, the more we understand the actual impact of our choices and what works best for us in the end. When we do, we can start using them to our advantage, creating not the change we’re after directly but the structures needed to get there.

SYNTHESIS:

• - Look to find patterns between direct and indirect change to better understand real outcomes of decisions.
• - Use those insights to create structures incrementally impacting us day by day in the direction we seek to go.
• - Review second-order consequences of choices made and adjust accordingly for the target outcome.